EMM Cost and Supply Provide Dual Support, Rising Expectations Heat Up [SMM EMM Daily Review]

October 21 – The average spot price of EMM in the main producing areas is 13,800-14,000 yuan/mt, while the average export FOB price remains at $2,050-2,100/mt. Supported by both the cost and supply sides, the market is expected to see a gradual strengthening of price increases.

Raw material side, prices have a solid floor: manganese carbonate ore prices remain high, upstream miners show strong reluctance to budge on prices with no signs of easing; key auxiliary materials such as sulphuric acid also remain firm, directly pushing up the marginal cost of EMM production and further narrowing the room for price reductions.

Supply side, tight conditions intensify upward momentum: spot cargo availability continues to shrink, market liquidity tightens, major enterprises prioritize long-term contract deliveries, and some producers, optimistic about future markets and aiming to lock in profits, generally adopt a "hold back from selling" strategy. The industry-wide reluctance to budge on prices and the tight balance in supply are unlikely to reverse in the short term.

Demand side, although showing divergence, still provides support: downstream steel mills, despite being in the September-October peak season, have seen demand recovery fall short of expectations, with procurement mainly for rigid needs. However, certain restocking demand in the medium manganese and special steel sectors has supported high-level transactions in the market, providing actual demand-side support for price rises.

Overall, with strong cost-side support, persistent supply tightness, and demand support from certain sectors, EMM prices are expected to rise further.